Barely three months after the Devils’ season began in 2013, it ended unceremoniously (in meaning, if not in fact) when they were officially eliminated from the playoffs with three games still to play in their 48-game season. With the Devils at 17-18-10 after their 4-1 loss to the Rangers at MSG yesterday, it can’t really be argued they deserved to be in the playoffs this year. Especially considering their 8-1-3 start should have provided enough cushion to get in with even an average final thirty-six games. New Jersey’s 9-17-7 nosedive was on the one hand shocking after the great start, but on the other hand the whole last two months were like a slow leak in a tire you could see coming a mile away and yet were still powerless to stop.
Personally I’m just thankful I had free tickets for Saturday and sold my regular seats for that game as well as tomorrow’s now-meaningless (except for the Habs) game against Montreal before prices plummetted over the last week. Kinda wish I’d done the same for Thursday’s home finale – especially since I just realized the NFL Draft is beginning on that night as well, but I am going with a friend and we might as well go to Fan Appreciation Night and get the team poster, particuarly since it’ll be the last time either of us can see live hockey for another five months.
With the Devils being 9-7-1 in the home games I went to, at least they’ll have a winning record with me in attendance – barely. Hard to believe the highlight of my sports 2013 is probably going to wind up being in attendance for last Friday’s New York Mets game and hearing the chant of ‘Harvey’s Better!’ (during the balleyhooed young guns matchup of Met ace Matt Harvey and Nationals ace Stephen Strausberg)…sounded eerily similar to a chant I’ve heard countless times at the Rock and Continental Airlines Arena, so at least that made me smile. Not much over the last several months has from a sports perspective, but sooner or later every sports fan has that kind of year where all your teams are bad. For many years the Devils have been my sports fan salvation while the Mets/Jets have frequently struggled but that wasn’t the case this time around.
All that off my chest, now it’s time to look ahead before I officially turn the page on this Devils season after Thursday night. Although last season ended much differently than this one, there’s still a similar dark cloud hanging over the team with several UFA’s to be once again including Devils all-time leading scorer Patrik Elias, current goal-scoring leader David Clarkson and other role players like Danius Zubrus, Marek Zidlicky and Peter Harrold. All told, the Devils have eight UFA’s and four RFA’s on the roster and decisions will have to be made sooner rather than later on most. It would be nice if Lou Lamoriello took advantage of the extra time he has before free agency and locks up some guys (since we have a de facto embargo on negotiating extensions during the season) but that’s generally not how he works.
On the other hand, it’s uncertain at this point which way the market will blow for a lot of our free agents, and at just what price it becomes unreasonable to retain someone. Decisions will have to be made, preferably sooner rather than later among our FA groups:
UFA – Elias, Zubrus, Clarkson, Ponikarovsky, Sullivan, Kostopolous, Zidlicky, Harrold
RFA – Henrique, Loiktionov, Josefson, D’Agostini
Notice all but Zidlicky and Harrold are forwards. Our scoring was a massive dissapointment, with just 104 goals in 45 games – tied for 27th in the NHL. With some of our key pieces up front FA’s to be, what Lou does this offseason may be pivotal for the next few years of this team going forward. It was always going to be problematic to replace Zach Parise, but there was barely an attempt to do so. Having AHL guys and scrubs in our top six just wasn’t going to cut it. Losing an Elias, a Zubrus, even a Clarkson as much as he annoys me would seemingly just make a bad situation worse. Of course there’s always the old adage that ‘we missed the playoffs with you, we can miss without you’.
Still it would be a shame to see my personal fave Elias walk. He hasn’t had a great year to be sure with 13 goals, 33 points and a +5 but he still led the team in points, and has always been a good soldier. Whether he was shifted to center or back to left wing he’s always produced and made the line he was on better, and when he unconscionably got stripped of his C by then-coach Brent Sutter he didn’t complain where others might have, specifically the guy who succeeded him as captain. Be that as it may, it’s hard to gauge what Elias’s motivation is, especially with a clown like Allan Walsh as his agent. Elias may have stayed the last time he went UFA, but he certainly wasn’t shy about holding Lou’s feet to the fire before doing so, and seemed perturbed a few days ago at Lou’s longstanding policy of not negotiating during the season.
Zubrus is a good role player that should be re-upped on a short-term deal. He’s never been a great regular season player statistically but his board work is among the best in the league and as we saw last year, that matters in big games. Even though the Devils have traded for Poni twice, his second tenure wasn’t anywhere near as successful as his first and it wouldn’t shock me to see him bolt for good this time. If they do sign him it better be on a cheap one-year deal and don’t have him anywhere near a top six next year. Tom Kostopolous was an expendable role player (of which we have a glut of now) that hasn’t played much and Steve Sullivan looked washed up this year in Phoenix and here, and was a healthy scratch yesterday with Kovy’s return. Can’t really see either of those two returning.
And then there’s the David Clarkson issue. Clarkson, like the team started out hot (ten goals and six assists with a +4 over his first fifteen games) and then fell into a black hole afterward with four goals, three assists and a -10 over his last thirty games. Complicating matters is Clarkson’s 30-goal season last year, which means that he’s likely going to be paid as a 30-goal scorer since he was on pace for close to that with his overall numbers this year…despite the fact Clarkson’s been healthy scratch material over the last two months. Whatever Pete DeBoer was able to bring out of Clarkson’s game last year and early this year, he hasn’t been able to recapture since early February. Will Clarkson take someone’s ridiculous offer in FA or will he give the team who made him – a former UDFA – a regular a hometown discount? Or will Lou blink and overpay, recognizing that this team’s forward depth can’t take any more of a hit than it already has? Those answers will shape our whole offseason in all likelihood.
Among our RFA’s, arguably three of our top four centers need to be tendered an offer next year including Adam Henrique, Andrei Loiktionov and former first-rounder Jacob Josefson. Henrique had a massive sophomore slump (16 points in 40 games) after a sensational rookie year. Loiktionov had twelve points in 26 games and was a revelation in his first month after being exiled from LA for a fifth rounder, but his play cooled off as the team’s did, and he was even a healthy scratch for a couple of recent games. Josefson was dissapointing as a whole this year, with just two assists and a -9 in nineteen games. With literally all of our top three centers – starting with Travis Zajac and his hideous year (18 points and a -5 in 45 games) – coming into the season having a massive dropoff in their play, one of Lou’s biggest questions will be figuring out why, and how to solve it.
An easy answer would be improving the talent on wing any way possible – via trade or FA most likely since any in-house solutions are still at least a year away (Reid Boucher), or just not good enough to be counted on (Mattias Tedenby). Particuarly in Zajac’s case as he’s now suffered two out of the last three years without Parise on his line. Also RFA is winger Matt D’Agostini, who showed some flashes during his time here, mostly due to his speed, but not nearly enough to say he should be kept, especially when the price for keeping him means we give up a fourth-rounder next year instead of a fifth.
Our eight-defenseman merry-go-round did not work – shot totals be damned, everyone but Lou apparently could see that it wasn’t benefitting anyone in the long run. Putting Anton Volchenkov back in the lineup Sunday after the D had arguably its four best games of the year without him or Bryce Salvador in the lineup was beyond ridiculous. And true to form, Volch’s turnover on the third goal and bad defense on the fourth sped the Devils along to defeat. It’s hard to picture a scenario that doesn’t involve some form of buyout where Volchenkov is not on the Devils next year, but his play’s progressively gotten worse and both he and Salvador became dual anchors on a defense that needs to get younger and more offensive-minded. Of course Sal’s not going anywhere after the still surprising decision to make him captain over Ilya Kovalchuk – who’s himself showing leadership (if somewhat recklessly) playing the final few meaningless games hurt.
Having a guy like Mark Fayne (the best defenseman on the team last year) or a potential future horse in Adam Larsson sitting for double-digit games isn’t going to cut it next year. Especially in Fayne’s case, it wouldn’t shock me if he asked for a trade in the offseason after being sent to the press box fourteen times – most gallingly in yesterday’s do-or-die game. Particuarly after he did the Devils a favor by taking a cheap short-term deal in RFA last year. He’s not going to do the team any favors in UFA, nor should he. And it’s no coincidence Larsson’s play improved down the stretch once the guillotine was finally removed from over his head. Room has to be made, not only for them to play every game but eventually for future prospects like Jon Merrill and Eric Gelinas. Either that or trade one/two of those guys for young forwards.
Ideally the Devils would bring back Zidlicky on a short-term deal, bring back Harrold as the #7, buy out Volch and trade Henrik Tallinder (on an expiring contract next year) to at least clear some room for either one of our kids or someone from the outside who isn’t going on 35 years old, slow and offensively retarded can join the lineup. What probably will happen is Zidlicky re-signs on a two or three-year deal – which will again be a year or two too long just like some of our other recent contracts – Harrold walks in FA to be a starter elsewhere, and Fayne gets traded with Volch/Sal still on the team. I really believe for whatever reason he’s somehow entrenched in the doghouse for good, which is shameful but hey at least the Devils don’t trade HOF’ers in the prime of their career the way some of my other teams do. That said, Fayne/Larsson should be here next year and playing every game, along with Andy Greene – our best defenseman this year. Maybe our best player period considering Kovy’s utter lack of 5-on-5 production and Elias’s nosedive with Kovy out of the lineup.
Even in goal there’ll have to be a decision made on Johan Hedberg, though neither he or Martin Brodeur are free agents, it’s obvious having two 40+ goalies has run its course with Moose’s poor season. As much as people want to run Marty out of town for his .901 save percentage, the fact is he did have a 2.23 GAA in his twenty-eight starts. You can live with Marty for another year – certainly not in the 70+ games role of the past, but in a 50-55 start role maybe. I don’t know if you can live with Moose, considering his .886 save percentage and 2.73 GAA. Especially if the plan is to have Marty start fewer games. Moose was terrific last year and started out great his first couple of starts this year but when the team needed him with Marty on the shelf, he short-circuited time and again. The only reason we might not buy out Moose is he’s well-respected and wanted a second year last offseason so he could relocate the family. At some point however, business has to trump loyalty. Particularly if you need a goalie to play 35 games or so next year.
Coaching-wise I haven’t always been thrilled with Pete’s lineup decisions on a game-by-game basis, although he wasn’t helped by Lou’s insistence on carrying eight d-men, or our glut of faceless third/fourth line forwards. That’s nothing against Steve Bernier, Ryan Carter or Stephen Gionta – among our few bright spots this year, they proved last year’s playoff run was no fluke and they were one of the best fourth lines in the league. Key words being fourth line. When they (particuarly Gionta) moved up, they weren’t nearly as effective. All should still have a place on this team next year though. Still, having too many options proved problematic at times, as guys were scratched for seemingly invented reasons, and the younger players frequently had a lesser leash than the vets.
Nor am I thrilled with the powerless play this year (amazingly still ‘only’ as low as 22nd in the league, though that number’s inflated by our ten five-on-three goals earlier this season). Even before Kovy’s injury they were awful 5-on-4, but Kovy being out of the lineup exposed just how bad Matt Shaw‘s system was. Maybe he gets a pass in a lockout-shortened season where they didn’t really have time to implement a new power play but it seemed as if the more we saw of it, the worse it actually got. Our PK under Dave Barr wasn’t nearly as effective as it was last regular season, at 18th overall, although that wasn’t helped by having a declining Salvador and Volchenkov frequently man the first PK defensive pair. Or guys like Gionta and Josefson killing penalties who really shouldn’t be killing penalties. Losing not only Parise but Zubrus from the PK when he was hurt compromised it big-time.
One thing you can’t fault the coaches on is effort. It was there most nights, make no mistake about it. That’s why it’s patently obvious the talent was lacking and the results were dissapointing. Even in games where the Devils didn’t start well (like the Florida game on Saturday or the game in Ottawa just after Kovy went out), DeBoer frequently had the right message during early timeouts and the Devils responded after that. What this organization is going to have to come to grips with is figuring out why a team that dominated so frequently down the stretch still couldn’t score, and how to fix the problem. Or why so many of its current top forwards all had years below what their bubble gum cards suggest they should have, and how that gets solved. Not to mention making better use of its assets on defense, and eventually getting younger in goal.
All I know is that most everything that could go wrong has gone wrong since the 2012 playoff run. Losing Parise to free agency, seven months of no hockey thanks to Great Lockout #3, then one month of promise followed by two months of dread and now another five months of no hockey in a long offseason, before another pivotal UFA period. And oh yes, being in a tougher division next year with Washington, an upturning Columbus and a pesky (if healthy) Carolina team. As if that weren’t enough of a downtrend, the Devils will have to eventually give up a first-round pick to cover their penalty on the Kovy contract. How embarassing would it be if it were another top ten pick the way this year looks like it’s going to be, and two years ago was? Not to mention the fact the guy they picked with the #29 last year – Stefan Matteau – was contreversially bounced from his QMJHL team in the middle of its playoff run after being benched in a playoff game, and warned ‘repeatedly’ about his behavior.
What happens this offseason will surely determine whether we can get off the mat the way we did two years ago, or we’re headed for rock bottom without a parachute.
hasan4978
Derek
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