When the Rangers visit Air Canada Centre for tonight’s match against the Maple Leafs, Derek Stepan will make his season debut. The 24-year old number one center finally returns from a broken left fibula sustained during training camp.
To the Rangers’ credit, they’ve hung around going 6-4-2 without Stepan. Having him back to anchor the top line should provide a spark. In 82 games last season, he finished second in scoring achieving career bests in assists (40) and points (57). Prior to missing the first 12 games, he’d never missed one. Dating back to his rookie year in ’10-11, Stepan played in 294 consecutive regular season games. He missed one game last postseason during the club’s run to the Stanley Cup Final.
Without question, his return allows Derick Brassard to center the second line. In the first season of a five-year contract worth $25 million, Brassard has gotten off to a good start. In the first dozen, he has five goals and seven assists totaling 12 points which ranks second in team scoring trailing only Rick Nash (10-3-13). With the two finding early chemistry, Alain Vigneault will keep them together with Martin St. Louis, who has come to life with three goals and an assist over the last two.
In his ’14-15 debut, Stepan will center Chris Kreider and Mats Zuccarello. Perhaps his return can spark Kreider, who’s had an uneven start. He did pick up a helper in their 4-3 overtime win over the Red Wings. However, his play has been inconsistent. Thus far, he has three goals and five assists for eight points ranking fourth in team scoring. There are shifts where he dominates with his size and speed like the goal he scored against St. Louis. There have been other instances where he hasn’t been noticeable. Being reunited with Stepan should help. Zuccarello also hasn’t performed to expectations with only one goal and three assists in 10 games.
“[Stepan and Kreider] have got some real good chemistry,” Vigneault told reporters. “He understands Chris well, he reads him well, he uses his speed well. [Zuccarello] I feel should fit in real nicely with that line.”
Zuccarello’s speed and playmaking should complement Stepan and Kreider. Zuccarello definitely needs space to operate. Maybe Kreider gets back to playing physical opening up the ice. Thus far, he has only 15 hits. A far cry from how he must play. If the trio meshes, that would give the Rangers two very good scoring lines. Essentially, Nash has carried them with some help from Brassard and St. Louis recently.
While the top two lines look set, the bottom two remain question marks. Despite ranking fifth in scoring with six points (1-5-6), rookie Anthony Duclair hasn’t gotten a lot of ice-time. Lately, Vigneault has limited Duclair’s shifts especially in the third period. With the gifted 19-year old playing his 10th game Wednesday, he’s here to stay. Given how visible he is getting scoring chances, it’s the right decision. He belongs. Now the question is what will Vigneault do with him. With Lee Stempniak scoring on a feed from Dominic Moore against Detroit, it looks like Duclair is stuck on the fourth line. A potential odd trio of Duclair, Kevin Hayes and Tanner Glass likely starts tonight.
Part of the dilemma is that Carl Hagelin remains ahead of Duclair. A solid role player, Hagelin is a responsible two-way forward who kills penalties. He’s off to a slow start with two goals and two helpers. The 26-year old Swede is in his fourth year. Hagelin set a new career best with 17 goals in 72 games last season. He followed that up with career highs in goals (7), assists (5) and points (12) in the playoffs. The thought process entering this year was that he should score between 15-20 goals with a target of 40 points. Interestingly, he’s been unable to match his rookie high of 38 established under John Tortorella in ’11-12.
The departure of Brad Richards hasn’t helped. Until either Kevin Hayes or J.T. Miller develop, the Blueshirts don’t have a true number three center. As respectable a player as Moore is, he’s more cut out for the fourth line. A role he flourished in playing alongside Brian Boyle and Derek Dorsett. Do you want your third line pivot to have no goals and three assists in Game 13? That’s exactly what Vigneault is going with. For nearly a decade, Moore has had a nice career. He’s also never totaled more than 41 points in a season. He did achieve a career high 18 goals in ’10-11 but that was with the Lightning. At this point, Moore’s a solid support player who should anchor the fourth line and kill penalties. Vigneault can plug him as needed.
In order for the Rangers to be successful, they need to become a four-line team. As currently constituted, that’s not feasible. Especially when their third line has a combined five goals. Stempniak has been a nice addition. One of Glen Sather’s best moves along with the underrated signing of Matt Hunwick, who’s exceeded expectations with a depleted blueline. Expecting Stempniak to be more than a role guy is unrealistic. Between 10-15 goals and 25-30 points is doable. Thus far, he’s 3-2-5 in 12 games. Hagelin needs to pick it up. But as long as he’s miscast, don’t expect the same production. Having Richards last year allowed Vigneault to use Brassard and Zuccarello on the third line. A luxury he no longer haves.
Duclair has enough offensive capability to play in a top nine role. Why not try a combo of Duclair, Hayes and Hagelin? At least Hagelin would get the chance to play with actual talent. As for Hayes, he shows potential. The big forward out of Boston College is still adjusting to his first pro year at center. In nine games, he has a goal and assist with a minus-one rating. Predictably, he’s gotten killed on faceoffs losing 70 of 95. With Vigneault emphasizing puck possession, it’s hard to play Hayes out of position unless he improves. Speaking of which, Stepan has never been good on faceoffs. A career 44.0 percent, he must improve. Without him, Brassard has excelled going 135-and-105. Moore is 106-and-86. Chris Mueller went 38-and-26 before getting sent down.
Assuming Hayes continues to struggle despite showing good defensive instincts and puck possession tendencies, he’ll probably go down to Hartford. That could open the door for Miller. The forgotten man who the Rangers selected 15th overall in 2011 continues to perform well with the Wolf Pack. He has three goals and five assists in nine games. At a point-per-game last year in the AHL, there really isn’t much left to prove. At 21, Miller has the size (6-1, 205) to become an NHL regular. The question is does he have the mindset. Following a strong camp, he looked lost. It took just three games for him to get sent back. He was dismal going minus-four with a couple of dreadful turnover that led to goals against.
What should the Rangers do with Miller? At some point, he has to play. Either sink or swim. Among the notables Miller was taken ahead of are Boone Jenner (Columbus-37th), Brandon Saad (Chicago-43rd), Matthew Nieto (San Jose-47th), Nikita Kucherov (Tampa-58th). Calgary freshman Johnny Gaudreau went 104th in the fourth round. Chicago stole Andrew Shaw in Round Five (139th). Ondrej Palat was an overager Tampa took 208th in the seventh round. Curiously, there haven’t been many successful players outside the top 10 in Round One. It makes you wonder.
Getting back on topic. Until Vigneault establishes the bottom six, the Rangers will be a work in progress. Stepan should help. But unless Vigneault learns to trust the kids, they could struggle. Don’t forget they’re minus one of the top defensemen. When does playing Dan Girardi and Marc Staal big minutes catch up? At least Kevin Klein is back. Boyle might return next week. We probably won’t see Ryan McDonagh until December. The Rangers won’t be at full strength for a while. What will the lineup look like by the second half? That could go a long way to determining what kind of season they have. Hopefully, Vigneault will have figured it out. He did last year.
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