Battle Of Hudson

Defensman Jon Merrill and goalie Cory Schneider unable to do anything about a goal by Trevor Daley in last night’s 4-2 loss at Dallas (NJ.com)

In every bad season there comes a point where as a fan you completely lose all hope and get resigned to the fact your team’s not going to win this year.  For me with the Devils, that point has come this week.  It’s one thing for the team to lose close games, it’s another thing to just be dominated game after game by other bad/mediocre teams.  Our three road games this week were Carolina, Philly and Dallas – all teams behind us in the standings (which is saying something with our record).  All three games the Devils were utterly outplayed, particularly the first two.  Only due to the fact that Cory Schneider had his best game of the season were the Devils able to win the Carolina game, against the worst of the three teams.  Being outshot 40-16 against a basement team and having coach Pete DeBoer parrot his standard meme on Monday of it ‘being a tough building against a desperate team’ was laughable.  As if we shouldn’t be desperate?  Or having sub-10000 fans in the arena still makes it a ‘tough building’.

At this point the Devils are 11-15-5, which actually looks better on paper than it is in actuality.  After our fluke three-game winning streak to start the season the Devils have won just eight of twenty-six games.  I didn’t think I was under any illusions coming into the season, despite our supposed improvements up front I figured we’d still be a borderline playoff team at best with some growing pains on a young D.  However, this season – much like the start of 2010-11 – has been so far below my worst nightmare it’s mind-boggling.  Defensively we’ve gone from allowing a league-leading 25.5 shots per game last year to being 21st in shots allowed this year with 31.3.  Granted some of that total is also due to the fact we have the second highest number of penalties in the league.  Staying out of the penalty box never used to be a problem for the Devils but the 115 times shorthanded in just 31 games is just another example of how this isn’t your daddy’s Devils.

Not only has the defense been a problem but what was supposed to be our strength – goaltending – has also been a problem.  Even just looking at the numbers 2.61 GAA (near the bottom of starting goalies) and .916 save percentage (middle of the pack) is bad enough, considering what the Devils gave up to get him and the deal he signed this offseason those numbers have been a disaster even without taking into account that the fact many of Cory’s goals given up have been of the soft variety.  Whether it’s from unscreened shortside shots or puckhandling snafus or bad rebounds.  Honestly we could have gotten this goaltending from Marty, yeah yeah Marty’s save percentage was a lot worse but at this point it might have been better if we kept our top ten pick, let Marty get to 700 wins here in a hopeless cause of a season and at least have drafted some young forward we can point to as a ray of hope up front.  Because right now it looks like Cory is overrated and hasn’t handled the starting role well.  Granted it would be nice if he could get more than two games and some third periods rest from this shooting gallery – he’s already been pulled in five of his twenty-nine starts.

Of course the main reason it might have been better not to bother trading for Cory is precisely because the forward corps as presently constituted is so bad with no real ray of hope coming for a group once again near the bottom of the league in offense (25th with 2.29 GPG).  More tellingly, if it wasn’t for our first two games of the year where we somehow scored eleven goals we’d have a GPG average of 2.02.  If the Devils’ defense is green, their forwards are too ancient with no real reinforcements available.  Even Reid Boucher’s taken a step back this year and now you have to wonder whether he’ll ever be a big contributor at the NHL level.  Given the fact the Devils had two star forwards leave in the last three seasons, it’s not surprising they lack depth up front but the other issue is the Devils just haven’t used a lot of high picks to replenish the system with forwards.  Consider our first and second round picks since 2010:

2010 – no first-rounder (Kovalchuk trade), 2nd round pick D Jon Merrill

2011 – 4th overall pick D Adam Larsson, no 2nd rounder

2012 – 29th overall F Stefan Matteau, 2nd round pick D Damon Severson

2013 – 9th overall (traded for G Cory Schneider), 2nd round pick D Steven Santini

2014 – 30th overall F John Quenneville, 2nd round pick D Joshua Jacobs

Notice a pattern?  Four second-round D plus Larsson.  One goalie and the only two forwards were picked at #29 and #30.  Right now Matteau looks like a guy that’ll top out at being a good third-liner and he clearly isn’t ready while any contribution we get from Quenneville is years away.  While you can’t really criticize Lou for stocking the D at some point – especially given that most of the above seem to be panning out – you need to eventually use some high-level assets on a dreadfully weak and thin forward core, either through the draft or trading from your strength in the defense pipeline.  Or you just become Nashville under Barry Trotz, all D, no offense and no realistic hope of winning big in today’s NHL without at least a couple of upper-echelon offensive talents.  Of course right now Schneider is no Pekka Rinne either, so we don’t even have that upside at the moment.

Perhaps the only good news up front is most of our forwards aren’t signed to long-term deals.  There are only four guys who have to be here beyond next year – centers Travis Zajac and Adam Henrique and wingers Mike Cammalleri and Ryane Clowe, though sadly Clowe’ll probably be on IR till the end of time so the total’s really three forwards that are taking up spots long-term.  Right now only Cammalleri and Henrique look like legit top six players and Cammalleri’s been even more fragile than feared, in and out of the lineup seemingly daily.  Sadly even playing 45-50 games Camm might still lead the team in scoring.  There is room for change, but how is change going to come without any legit prospects on the way?  The only avenues to improve the forwards are through trade or free agency and the FA crop gets weaker every year as more of the big-names re-sign with their teams under the new system where they can get more money and years by staying.  Too bad the lockout wasn’t one year earlier, we might have still had Zach Parise under this system.

Honestly I didn’t mean for this to be a long post about the ills of the Devils cause I’m tired of talking about it all and we have several months to speculate on what happens next, what’s the first domino to fall, who gets traded at the deadline and does DeBoer finally lose his career-long pass for coaching bad teams?  It’s amazing how his defenders constantly bring up the fact ‘Pete had bad rosters’ as a reason for him missing the playoffs six of seven years.  Where’s this defense for all the other coaches who get fired with bad rosters?  It’s not like most other cellar-dwellers give the coach a pass, why do we have to be the only ones that do?  Replacing Pete at this point is more about finding out what you have with the defensemen and getting players like Tuomo Ruutu out of the doghouse instead of having someone coach scared and play his pets all the time.  If we’re going to crash and burn this season let’s at least get something productive out of it and properly develop/evaluate this roster before we have to go out and make wholesale changes to it.

If bad seasons are tough on the players at least they’re getting paid to go through the misery.  Fans don’t get paid, although there is always the option to turn off the TV while the players don’t get the option to check out.  Of course that option doesn’t exist when the team’s at home if you’re a season ticket holder that goes to the majority of games.  Even if I wanted to sell off most of the games in the second half of the season I’d be getting dimes on the dollar, and starting next Wednesday the Devils still have thirty home games left in the season.  Given our schedule was backloaded with only 11 out of the first 34 games being at the Rock, it just ensures that many more games with lousy attendance and dead buildings down the stretch when normally the Devils sell better after Christmas.

Not to mention the conflicting rooting interests that come from having a bad team.  There always comes the ethical dilemma when (if at all) to root against your team for the sake of a higher draft pick.  Sadly as a Jets, Mets and Devils fan I’m becoming well-versed in this mindset.  Everyone has their own limits.  Some fans were convinced before the season we were bad and should be tanking.  Others like me would rather wait until the team’s realistically eliminated before making that choice.  Would it be nice to have a better chance at super forward prospects Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel?  Sure, but that’s all it is – a chance.  The NHL’s lottery system is slowly but ensuring that the randomness in the NBA lottery is coming to an NHL draft near you soon with the worst team only having a 20% chance at the top pick.  At least this year you can only move down one spot at worst from where you finish (say if you’re fifth from worst, you get knocked down to sixth if a team that finishes ahead of you somehow wins the lottery).  Next year the top three picks all get selected so theoretically the team with the worst record could be drafting fourth.

Honestly my general line of demarcation is the trade deadline presuming the Devils start selling off pieces and are still way out of it by then, since the Devils were nine million points out of a playoff spot in 2010 but it was still…too…freaking…early for me to get into ‘let’s get this draft pick’ mode, especially with having to go to a ton of games.  I do know this much, I wouldn’t watch games actively rooting against the team.  Which is why I’m not watching today’s NFL Jets-Titans game.  Although at this point I would rather the Jets get a higher pick, it just doesn’t feel right watching them and rooting for the other team to win.  And also, draft pick interests get squelched (for me) if you’re playing a late-season game against a rival with a chance to knock them out of the playoffs.  I’m sorry, you don’t have a soul if you’re a Devils fan that wouldn’t take some pleasure of playing spoiler against the Rangers or Flyers in March/April if there was a shot to knock them out of the postseason – I’m not counting the Pens cause they’re likely not going to be in a position to be knocked out of the postseason but they’d fit the rival context in a different year too.  Or for that matter, my football Jets playing against the Dolphins the last week of the season if the Fish are still alive for a spot.  Even if the difference might mean a few ping-pong balls in the NHL lottery or a significantly higher draft pick in the NFL Draft.  Not even just for the sake of hating the other team, but to also just have some pride in your own team after a long season.

Devils goalie Keith Kinkaid making one of his 37 saves during his NHL debut (NJ.com)

Tonight’s shootout loss against the Blackhawks was a classic dilemma of figuring out whether the glass was half-full or half-empty.  On the plus side, an injury-laden lineup had a gritty effort against a superior team on a back-to-back, overcoming a crucial double-minor penalty on Jacob Josefson in the second period and an overtime penalty on Jaromir Jagr to gut out a 65-minute tie against the mighty Hawks with a rookie goaltender making his NHL debut.  However, Keith Kinkaid deserved more than one point with a poised, outstanding game making 37 saves and exhibiting outstanding rebound control.  It’s only shameful it took the Devils this long to give him a start after extended periods on the bench in 2013 and earlier this year.  And of course on the minus side, you had yet another blown lead in the final five minutes of regulation and yet another shootout where the two teams might as well have walked off the ice with how helpless Kinkaid and shooters Martin Havlat and Jaromir Jagr were in the skills competition.  Not to mention with the Devils still several games under .500, moral victories aren’t going to help for long.

Amazingly enough the Devils have managed five points out of their last four games, but you wouldn’t have thought it given their shameful efforts at home against the Caps on Saturday and in Carolina last night.  Clearly the game in Carolina the 2-1 regulation win was entirely due to Cory Schneider, who made 40 saves and was under siege all night as the last-place Canes dominated the Devils.  Those two games didn’t exactly give me much hope for tonight, though in a weird way I was a lot more excited about the game when I heard Kinkaid (a 25-year old undrafted FA, who has been playing well for Albany the last couple of seasons) would finally be making his NHL debut.  Not to mention relieved Cory would be getting a well-deserved rest after dragging the team to two undeserved points the previous night and playing four games in a week in four different cities.  Still, part of me had the feeling of ‘why did it have to be now?’  Giving Kinkaid the nod against a loaded and rested Blackhawks team – albeit one playing a backup goaltender of their own – seemed tantamount to giving him a blindfold and a cigarette facing a firing squad.

Yet as they did in Toronto last week, the Devils saved one of their best efforts for when the odds were most stacked against them.  In a way it was fitting that our fourth third line of Stephen Gionta, Jordin Tootoo and Steve Bernier scored both goals, especially since seeing 20-11-18 from the stands gives me flashbacks to 2012 with Ryan Carter as the ’20’.  While Tootoo has struggled this season staying out of the box, he played his best game as a Devil tonight, scoring a goal picking his spot far side on a two-on-one in the first period, and bringing energy in his seven minutes.  Stephen may well be the best Gionta in the NHL at this point given big bro’s struggles in Buffalo, and he capped off a two-point night with a masterful deflection of a Bernier shot in the third period, giving the Devils a lead against the run of play at that point.

While the Devils did play their best period in the last three games in the first (a welcome change from all our bad first periods lately) the tide started to turn in the second when we were outshot 17-7, and only Kinkaid and some timely plays from our defense were able to keep the Hawks off the board long enough to give us delusions of a storybook finish.  With forwards Travis Zajac (lower body/flu), Patrik Elias (groin) and Mike Cammalleri (butt – yes that is not a misprint) all on the shelf, and Damien Brunner in exile the Devils had to mix and match up front.  Unable to trust rookie Reid Boucher or Tootoo late in a tight game, the Devils went to a three-line rotation in the third period of a back-to-back.  Ironically, it caught up with us when Mike Sislo subbed in for Michael Ryder on a shift and missed an assignment on the game-tying goal when Duncan Keith snuck in from the point to tie the game with just 3:13 to go in regulation.  Perhaps the Devils’ best chance to win the game had already passed minutes earlier when Havlat somehow managed not to score despite hitting a post and a crossbar on the same shot.

Defensively the story of the game was the icetime logged by our four main guys, including Jon Merrill who led the way playing nearly thirty minutes (29:30), followed by Andy Greene at 26:38 and Marek Zidlicky and Damon Severson clocking in at just under 24 minutes.  While six defensemen played, Seth Hegelson was barely a factor with under eleven minutes and it seems as if healthy scratch Eric Gelinas is in the doghouse yet again and rightly so after continued struggles defensively.  With Adam Larsson still out with the flu/possible mumps it was the restored Peter Harrold – who never actually went down to Albany – that filled out the defensive core and made a couple of nice plays to save goals.  Up front, perhaps the most alarming thing is that recent signee Scott Gomez led our forwards in icetime with 21:28.  Alarming because you can’t actually criticize that given the way Gomez has played and the fact very few of our other forwards are capable of big icetime.  Ironically enough Gomez has even become a go-to-guy in the faceoff dot, winning thirteen of twenty draws tonight against some tough centers.  Every other Devils center (Adam Henrique, Jacob Josefson and Gionta) combined to win under 40% of their faceoffs.

Still the story of the game was Kinkaid, who shined and made the Devils look foolish by waiting so long to play him.  His playing well can only mean good things in terms of giving Cory more of a blow during a tough December schedule that doesn’t let up anytime soon with another six games in ten day stretch starting Wednesday, with the first three on the road in Philly, Dallas and Long Island before returning home for a four-game stand going into the holiday break.  With some winnable games coming up before the break, now’s the time for the Devils to make a move if they’re going to be serious about staying in the playoff race this year.  Granted the competition in the Metro isn’t lighting the world on fire yet other than the Penguins and Isles, leaving the automatic third spot up for grabs which is the only reason the Devils aren’t yet buried with an 11-13-5 record.