In my recap of Devils-Canes playoff history I pretty well glossed over the most recent of the series, and the only one where a majority of the players were involved with – the second-round matchup two years ago. With good reason obviously since the Devils quickly and quietly got drubbed in five games. That’s the only way you can really describe a series where you lose three blowouts and were never realistically in the series apart from winning Game 3 to give themselves a chance to even the series at home, but a 6-1 pasting was unfortunately the last time they were on home ice in one of the most successful regular seasons in franchise history.

I’m not going to say 2022-23 was the most successful regular season even though they set records for wins and points – in part because they didn’t win a division, plus the 3-on-3 OT and shootout wasn’t a thing in 2001 when the most talented Devils team of all time had a 111-point season, one shy of the total two years ago. Of course a lot of time has passed since then, for both teams. Our future doesn’t look quite as rosy as it did in the wake of that series defeat, even if they seemingly have better talent at key positions. But I’ll get to the team inquest when and if they have the quick playoff exit I fear. For now I guess we’ll just look at this year’s matchup.

As much as I’ve complained about the Devils struggles it’s not like the Hurricanes are hot going into the playoffs either, finishing the season at 1-5-1 in their last seven games. Of course most of those losses came when their playoff seeding went from highly likely to mortal lock so I don’t really take that with the same meaning as I do the Devils going 17-19-4 over a forty game stretch (which doesn’t even include the 1-3 to end the season once the Devils were also locked into the third seed). We haven’t had longer than a three game winning streak this season, to be honest it’s kind of amazing the Devils were largely not threatened in terms of making the playoffs from about November on despite that long stretch of mediocrity.

Still, I don’t want to hear the complaining from certain fanbases and media markets such as ‘oh, what a shame Calgary missed the playoffs with 94 points while we had an automatic division berth with 91, the worst point total of any playoff team’…well yeah of course the West playoff teams are going to have higher point totals – all the truly dross teams are in the West! San Jose (52 points), Chicago (61) and even Nashville (68) all had significantly worse point totals than the East’s worst teams with the Bruins and Flyers both on 76 points. The fact the worst team in the East has 76 points is itself an indicator of parity – not to mention the OT and SO loser points goosing the total a bit. You play an 82 game season to determine the best team over seven months, as much as I’ve complained about the second half of the year, the first half counts too, at least going into the playoffs.

As I’m typing, the first round schedule has come out so might as well post that here…an Easter Sunday afternoon start isn’t exactly ideal but I guess this is one time I’m glad a series is starting on the road, hah

Of course, starting in Carolina isn’t exactly ideal for the team itself given our sordid playoff history down in Raleigh but I’ve already gone over that in a previous blog. It’s kind of hard to get a true read on either team this year given the major changes that have happened over the last few months, us due to injury and them due to the Mikko Rantanen trade(s). One playoff story that’s been undersold – at least till this point – is the fact we have at least three former Canes on the roster now including Erik Haula, and more recently Stefan Noesen and Brett Pesce, both of whom were on the 2023 team that beat us up in the second round. I guess it can’t hurt having so many players who’ve been a part of that team and that system when you’re trying to play a seven-game series with them.

Conversely the most famous ex-Devil who’s in Carolina now is a more distant figure of the past in Taylor Hall. While he’s 33 years old now and certainly not as dynamic or effective as he was during his 2017-18 MVP season with us, you know he’ll want to turn back the clock and impress, just like our former Canes will try to do the same. I doubt any of those players wind up deciding the series in the end, but in a two week span, anything can happen after all.

What’s more likely to decide the series is goaltending. All year long I erroneously have heard that ‘at least the Devils will have the advantage in net’ when fans were looking ahead to the Carolina matchup…but will we really? With Freddie Anderson back healthy for Carolina, they’ve stabilized in net – even after struggling in his last three games (all dead rubbers) his GAA is a more than respectable 2.29 with a .907 save percentage in 21 starts. His issue is generally health rather than talent, as evidenced by the fact he’s played in just 72 games over the last three seasons. Of course, we’ve seen how good a healthy Andersen can be two years ago in the playoffs.

After it seemed like Jacob Markstrom had found his game a couple weeks ago, he lost it again with a horrible performance against Boston just before we’d officially clinched a playoff spot. At least his last game before the playoffs was a 1-0 loss – but being that was a dead rubber game I didn’t watch, so I can only assume he played well enough by the scoreline. Wisely, the Devils rested the 35-year old Markstrom (and his still questionable lower body injury) in the last two games before the postseason…but given that the playoffs start on Sunday hopefully a week off won’t be too much rust. While 1B goalie Jake Allen has played better than Markstrom for much of the season, he struggled a bit down the stretch. I still think he gets the call if Markstrom struggles early much like Akira Schmid two years ago, but it’s more likely than not that the series comes down to one of the two 35-year old starters in net.

Defensively the edge is pretty close to even, at least in terms of defending with the Devils having allowed 222 goals this season and Carolina 226 (with one game to play), and those totals are with Carolina playing the shaky Pyotr Kochetkov in net for 47 games. Where Carolina’s defenders have the edge is in helping the offense and the transition game. For us, Luke Hughes and Dougie Hamilton both have 40+ points despite missing double digit games, but nobody else on the blueline has more than 22…and Brian Dumoulin had most of those in Anaheim. While Carolina only had one 40-point scorer on D in Shayne Gostisbehere, they also have three other blueliners in the high 20’s. While the additions of guys like Pesce and Brendan Dillon have certainly improved our defending, our transition game has suffered a bit going older and slower on the blueline. Against a quick, counterattacking team like Carolina hopefully it won’t come back to bite us.

Up front, the story will be about who’s not there for both teams. In Carolina’s case, they likely aren’t as explosive now after initially trading Martin Necas in a deal for Mikko Rantanen, then after it became obvious Rantanen wouldn’t resign there, flipping him off for futures at the deadline. While the latter deal improved the team chemistry seemingly (and gave them back forwards Hall and young Logan Stankoven), you’d still like to have either of the first-line forwards in a playoff situation.

Still, Carolina scored nineteen more goals than we’ve had this season with one game still left to play for them and if they’re missing a top line forward from Opening Night, then so are we with Jack. Top-line production is pretty thin on both sides with them having two players above sixty points (Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis), then a big dropoff to the #3 scorer Andrei Svechnikov with 46 points. We have Bratt with 88 points, Nico with 70 and Timo Meier with 53, including 26 goals so maybe we have slightly more top line production on paper but those guys have to play like it in the playoffs, unlike two years ago when none really did in spite of our series win against the Rangers.

After Timo, the scoring drops off pretty quickly with Noesen’s 41 points being good enough for third among active forwards, just ahead of the disappointing Dawson Mercer with 36. Big-game performer Ondrej Palat only had 28 points despite playing a lot of top six minutes this season, can we really count on him or Noesen to lead the way? As much as I think both can contribute, we’re gonna need the big guns to score big goals at some point. Obviously the same is true for Carolina, but given their playoff history and the fact their offense has been slightly better than ours, you still have to give them the edge up front until the big guns show up in big games.

Special teams might be the one clear edge I can see, at least the power play which was third in the NHL with a 28.2 conversion percentage compared to Carolina’s 26th rated power play at 18.5 percent. On the PK, both teams rank 1 and 2 respectively so you’d hope ours would be able to shut down their power play for the most part. If that doesn’t happen, or if their PK finds a way to shut us down then it could be problematic. I can’t give us a coaching edge either, as much as I like Sheldon Keefe at best it’s a wash between him and Rod Brind’Amour, who almost always gets the most out of his team when the chips are down while Keefe really hasn’t in the second half of this season.

Basically doing this preview pretty much confirmed my initial bias to begin with, or doomerism as an apologist fan might view it. I can’t see a clear edge for us apart from comparing power plays, and certainly historically we haven’t matched up well with this team. Despite Carolina’s bad form once they clinched, we’ve had longer mired in mediocrity since the new year. I’d love to be wrong but in spite of Carolina not looking quite the same themselves as they have been the last couple years, this series screams five games at best, basically a rerun of 2023 only likely without as many goals given up and closer games. Win one of the first two and it can be a long series. If that doesn’t happen then you’re likely looking at a rerun of 2018 against Tampa, or 2023’s Carolina series where we’re playing not to be swept as opposed to playing to win.

It’s now show-me time for a lot of these players after a disappointing 1.5 seasons following the 2023 playoffs, show me why I should believe again in you guys. I don’t want to hear about Jack being out, or even the refs not calling stuff…it’s time to find a way to beat this team. Especially with them being a clear favorite for once in a matchup with us. And while they do have an edge or are even with us in almost every area, it’s not by a wide enough margin where great individual performances (or slumps) can’t stem the tide. But for that to happen, this team needs to show the spirit and fire they’ve largely lacked over the last two seasons.