When the puck drops this evening at 33rd and 7th, the New York Rangers step up in competition when they host the Winnipeg Jets. The Jets boast a league best 14-1-0 record. It isn’t by accident.

Under former Rangers assistant Scott Arniel, they enter play with the top ranked offense. The Jets have outscored opponents 67-31. That includes 48-25 at even strength and 35-24 at five-on-five. Nobody has more comeback wins than the Jets. Half of the 14 wins have come when trailing. Five from two goals behind and two from a goal down. They’re outscoring opponents 25-9 in the third period. They’ve won all three games that have gone to overtime.

The Jets are also good in the first period, where they’ve outscored opponents 18-10. Starts have been an issue for the Rangers in recent games. They don’t want to fall behind early against a dangerous opponent. To their credit, they’ve done a good job by outscoring opponents 17-9 in the first period. The second has been problematic. The Buffalo Sabres exploded for four goals in a 6-1 blowout on Nov. 7.

The Rangers hold a slight 16-14 edge in goals during second periods. However, anyone that’s paid close attention knows that they’ve struggled mightily. Too often, goalies have bailed them out. On most nights, it’s Igor Shesterkin. When they defeated the Detroit Red Wings 4-0, it was Jonathan Quick who stifled 19 Red Wing shots in a lopsided second enroute to the 61st shutout of his career. Late in the period, Jimmy Vesey and Artemi Panarin provided crucial goals to help the Rangers pull away.

In that particular game last Saturday night, only two skaters finished with a Corsica rating of at least 50.0 or better. They were Panarin (50.0 CF) and Adam Fox (61.8 CF), who had arguably his best game of the season. Fox picked up two assists and saved a goal with a key stick check to deny Alex DeBrincat with a gaping net. Fox’s play has been uneven up to this point. Maybe his strong play will carry over. The Blueshirts need him to be the Adam Fox who’s been one of the game’s best defensemen. He enters tonight with 11 assists. The breakdown is six on the power play and five at even strength. Obviously, five-on-five is a key area they need more from the anchor of the defense.

Zibanejad’s Issues at Five on Five

Of all the Rangers’ stars, Mika Zibanejad hasn’t performed up to expectations. The 31-year-old first line center is being counted on by coach Peter Laviolette to provide consistent play at five-on-five. It hasn’t been there yet. Laviolette broke up his best scoring line to try to get Zibanejad going. He’ll again play with the Rangers’ top two forwards when Panarin and Alexis Lafreniere join him on the top line. It’s an experiment the coach is willing to see through. Zibanejad picked up a nice primary assist on Panarin’s team-leading ninth goal against the Red Wings. That’s a start. The trio have been on for one goal against. So, they’re even so far.

Prior to that assist, Zibanejad went the previous six games without a point at five-on-five. He tallied three assists in a 5-2 win over the New York Islanders on Nov. 3. One came early when he set up Chris Kreider for a shorthanded goal. The second came on a Panarin power-play goal. The third came when Panarin scored into an empty net. Prior to setting up Panarin this past Saturday, his last point at five-on-five came on Oct. 22. in a 7-2 win over the Montreal Canadiens.

If there’s an area he continues to excel at, it’s on the penalty kill where the Rangers rank first in the NHL at 91.1 percent. They’ve only allowed four power-play goals in 45 attempts. The tandem of Zibanejad and Kreider remain one of the league’s best shorthanded. As usual, Kreider leads the Blueshirts with two shorthanded goals. Nobody has scored more shorthanded than him since 2021-22. His 11 are the most in that span. He and Zibanejad have great chemistry together. It’s similar on the power play, with Zibanejad often finding Kreider in front for tip-ins. That’s probably why Zibanejad remains on the top unit.

From a five-on-five standpoint, Zibanejad and Kreider have been the weakest links. Laviolette stuck with them along with Reilly Smith for a while. The metrics were too hard to ignore. Although they were only outscored 4-3, that line was getting pinned in by opponents. According to Natural Stat Trick, they were outshot 62-44 for a 43.08 CF percentage (111-84). They were spending too much time in their zone. Something needed to change. Laviolette broke up Zibanejad and Kreider.

Trocheck’s Recent Struggles

Right now, Vincent Trocheck is playing with Kreider and Smith on the second line. Trocheck’s struggled recently. He had a team high five giveaways against Detroit a few days ago. His 28 are the most on the Rangers. To put it into perspective, he only totaled 36 all of last season. He’s still been good on faceoffs, winning 53.5 percent. Zibanejad has improved by winning 53.9. A welcome change from the 49.3 he posted in 2023-24. Sam Carrick actually leads the team with a 56.6 winning percentage (60-46). Filip Chytil still struggles on draws, going 54-and-81 (40.0 percent).

Miller and Trouba Not Working

There are other concerns. By reteaming Fox with Lindgren, Laviolette is once again relying on K’Andre Miller and Jacob Trouba as the shutdown pair. It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to see that whenever they’re teamed up, bad things tend to happen. Miller has a hard time skating backwards while Trouba is slow getting back. They also leave too many gaps in the middle of the ice, which allows for breakaways. Miller struggles at taking the right angles. On odd man rushes, Trouba will go down to the ice taking himself out of the play. A snow angel. Many players do it. It’s ineffective.

Given how much better he worked with Braden Schneider, who’s been the Rangers’ best defenseman, it would be wiser to have Trouba play with Schneider. Schneider proved that he’s capable of shifting over to the left side to play bigger minutes. He and Zac Jones have been the most consistent duo since Jones returned to the lineup. With Ryan Lindgren struggling thus far, what’s more important? Having a good third pair or improving the top four by moving up Schneider. There’s no reason for Laviolette to stick with the old pairs. They were better defensively before that.

Miller remains a frustrating player to watch. He’ll have active shifts where he plays more aggressively by using his size and strength to take players off the puck. Then, there’ll be shifts when he makes mistakes in coverage and on bad pinches. He is a strong puck possession player. However, he remains inconsistent. It also doesn’t help that his offense has disappeared. In the Rangers’ 14th game, he comes in with a goal and assist. For a defenseman with his skill, that shouldn’t be the case. Rookie Victor Mancini has four points in nine games. Jones has four assists in eight.

It wasn’t long ago that Miller established career bests in goals (9), assists (34), and points (43) in 2022-23 under former coach Gerard Gallant. That was only his third season. Miller produced 38 of his 43 points at even strength. In his first year under Laviolette, he finished with eight goals and 22 assists for 30 points. Twenty-eight of the 30 came at even strength. A disappointing second half has carried over. Miller is in a contract year. The 24-year-old remains a key to the season. It’s up to him to elevate his play.

Handling the Jets’ Offense

If they’re to be successful tonight, the Rangers will want to avoid the penalty box. The Jets’ offense ranks first on the power play. They’ve gone 18-for-43 for a league best 41.9 percent. That includes seven-for-14 on the road. Kyle Connor leads them with four power-play goals. Nik Ehlers and Cole Perfetti each have three. Neal Pionk and Alex Iafallo have two apiece.

The Jets have a very balanced attack. Eleven different skaters have at least 10 points. Connor and Mark Scheifele are tied for the team lead in scoring with 19 points. Ehlers has 16, followed by defenseman Josh Morrissey (16), and Pionk (14). With both Morrissey and Pionk contributing regularly, the Jets are getting plenty of offense from the blue line.

Perfetti and Gabe Vilardi are tied with 13 points. They’re part of a strong supporting cast which includes Nino Niederreiter, captain Adam Lowry, and Vladislav Namestnikov. Even former Ranger Morgan Barron plays a key defensive role for Winnipeg. He averages over 11 minutes per game.

The Blueshirts will need to defend well and come out of the neutral zone. They must establish a consistent forecheck. Something that’s been mostly absent from the current top six. It’s usually the bottom six that provide more offense. Chytil, Will Cuylle and Kaapo Kakko are coming off a rare bad game. They have good chemistry and should play a role in the outcome. Cuylle remains a strong forechecker due to his north-south physical style. He makes a difference.

If there was a bright spot in the win over the Red Wings, it was the play of Carrick, Vesey, and Adam Edstrom. They put together a strong shift that resulted in Carrick setting up Vesey for his first of the season. Since they’ve been together, there’s been a lot to like. They’re all good skaters who can get in on the cycle and make things happen.

Shesterkin Versus Hellebuyck

It looks like Igor Shesterkin will oppose Connor Hellebuyck. Despite Quick being the first goalie off at Monday’s practice, Peter Baugh of The Athletic reported that it will be Shesterkin.

If that’s the case, Shesterkin will look to bounce back from allowing five goals on 12 shots in a 6-1 loss to the Sabres. He enters play with a 6-3-1 record with a 2.62 GAA and .920 save percentage. That goals against went way up from getting chased. Ditto for the save percentage, which fell way down.

Hellebuyck is the rating Vezina winner. He’s off to another great start. With an 11-1-0 record, he has a 1.83 GAA and .935 save percentage. His three shutouts lead the league. With 286 career wins, he’s 14 away from 300. The 31-year-old American is the best regular season goalie, winning two Vezinas. He’d like to improve on the postseason where he hasn’t gotten out of the first round since 2021. The last two years were colossal disappointments.

Unlike Hellebuyck, Shesterkin has performed well in recent postseasons by taking the Rangers to two Conference Finals appearances over the last three years. Hellebuyck did that for Winnipeg in 2018 as a 24-year-old.

It’s a matchup that pits the two best goalies against each other. The only difference is Hellebuyck took a discount to stay with the Jets. He has an $8.5 million cap hit. Shesterkin is looking to break the bank in a contract year. It looks like it’s $12 million or bust if the Rangers plan to keep him.

Hopefully, Shesterkin gets more support from his teammates. If he doesn’t, it could be a long night.