ATLANTIC DIVISION

Toronto Maple Leafs (2nd)

2022-23 Record: 50-21-11 111 Pts

Eliminated in Second Round by Panthers

Key Subtractions: Michael Bunting (signed with Hurricanes), Ryan O’Reilly (signed with Predators), Noel Acciari (signed with Penguins), Alex Kerfoot (signed with Coyotes), Luke Schenn (signed with Predators), Erik Gustafsson (signed with Rangers), Justin Holl (signed with Red Wings), Zach Aston-Reese (unsigned)

Key Additions: Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, John Klingberg, Ryan Reaves

Overview: After going nearly two decades without advancing past the first round, the Leafs finally exorcized some demons by eliminating the rival Lightning in a tightly contested six-game series. Although they prevailed to satisfy Leafs Nation, they had to come back in almost every game. Sudden death was on their side. So was the road where they went three-for-three in Tampa.

As big a series victory as that was, they suffered a disappointing second round defeat to the upset minded Panthers. Florida went 3-0 at Scotiabank Arena. That included taking Game Five in overtime to end the Leafs’ season.

It wasn’t memorable for the core stars. The quartet of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander combined for just three goals in the series. Neither Matthews nor first round hero Tavares had a goal. If they’re to finally make a deep run, the best players must perform on the big stage. They also need to win on home ice. They went a mind-numbing 1-5 at home.

The biggest change for the Leafs was former GM Kyle Dubas departing for Pittsburgh, where he took over as both Team President and GM. Replacing him is former Calgary GM Brad Treliving. He had a good off-season by signing both Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi to one-year contracts. Each should help bolster the scoring depth behind the Big Four. They will supply skill and grit to a lineup that needs it to be successful.

The Leafs did lose some quality players with Ryan O’Reilly, Noel Acciari, Michael Bunting, and Alex Kerfoot finding new homes. However, the hope is that the combination of Bertuzzi and Domi, along with promising youngster Matthew Knies, can more than make up for the departures.

Most importantly, Treliving was able to extend Matthews to a four-year deal worth an average cap hit of $13.25 million starting next year. He’s in the final year of a contract that pays him $11.64 million. They couldn’t afford to lose Matthews to free agency next summer. Only 25, the former Hart and Rocket Richard winner, is entering his prime.

With William Nylander in his final year of a contract that pays him just under seven million, it’ll be interesting to see what happens with the budding 27-year-old star. Nylander is content to play it out. Considering the team they have, the Leafs would be wise to take a similar approach. They want to win. It’s been long enough.

Aside from the main actors, there’s a strong supporting cast that features the likes of Sam Lafferty, Calle Jarnkrok, the aforementioned rookie Knies, and David Kampf. Adding veteran Ryan Reaves can only help on and off the ice. He won’t play every night. But the energy and toughness he provides should be popular.

The blue line only has one change. John Klingberg was brought in to provide offense. He still can be a factor on the power play. With ace Morgan Rielly anchoring the top unit, Klingberg should be a fixture on the second unit. He replaces Erik Gustafsson. They’re quite similar. Neither is known for their defense.

Rielly remains one of the top defensemen in the sport. He gets overlooked due to other big stars who have won the Norris. He plays a ton of minutes and remains one of the most important Leafs. Jake McCabe is signed for two more years. He’ll throw his weight around and keep opponents honest.

T.J. Brodie is a puck moving defenseman. Mark Giordano might be in his final season. He still can supply valuable minutes while adding some offense. Timothy Liljegren became a trusted player under coach Sheldon Keefe. He was recently extended. So. He’s not going anywhere.

Goaltending remains intriguing. Ilya Samsonov became the number one last season. However, injuries limited his effectiveness in the playoffs. Joseph Woll played well in relief. Maybe they should be asking if Woll is the solution in goal. Time shall tell.

Matt Murray was again plagued by injuries. He likely will be on LTIR. Who knows what his status will be.

Analysis: On paper, the Leafs have all the ingredients to go farther. They know the window could be closing due to Nylander’s uncertain status. The additions of Bertuzzi and Domi should strengthen their chances.

Depth shouldn’t be an issue. There’s enough high character guys that can provide secondary scoring.

The questions remain the same for this talented group. Can Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, and Rielly deliver when it counts? They’ve got help. Which goalie will be the one to step up? Can the defense hold up?

Prediction: With the Bruins likely to fall due to significant departures, the Leafs look like the class of the Atlantic Division. It’s hard to see the Lightning being able to stay with them. It could come down to the Panthers and Leafs.

I’m taking the Leafs to win at least 50 games and win the division. They should have even more pressure on them next postseason. This is a roster capable of reaching the Conference Finals. Maybe it’s finally the year they play for the Stanley Cup.