ATLANTIC DIVISION

Tampa Bay Lightning (3rd)

2022-23 Record: 46-30-6 98 Pts

Eliminated in First Round by Maple Leafs

Key Subtractions: Alex Killorn (signed with Ducks), Ross Colton (traded to Avalanche), Pat Maroon (traded to Wild), Corey Perry (signed with Blackhawks), Ian Cole (signed with Canucks), Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (signed with Kraken), Brian Elliott (unsigned)

Key Additions: Conor Sheary, Josh Archibald, Luke Glendening, Connor Brown, Jonas Johansson, Calvin de Haan, Austin Watson (PTO)

Overview: Following a disappointing first round loss to the rival Maple Leafs, the Lightning again were forced to subtract key pieces from their two championship teams. Popular forward, Ross Colton was dealt to the Avalanche for a second round pick. They couldn’t afford to keep him. Gritty energizer Pat Maroon was sent to the Wild.

They also lost Corey Perry, who signed with the rebuilding Blackhawks. Ian Cole moved onto Vancouver. Pierre-Edouard Bellemare left for Seattle.

The biggest departure was playoff hero Alex Killorn leaving Tampa for Anaheim. They couldn’t make it work. Killorn received a big four-year contract to move West and try to help the Ducks. He was a trusted top six forward, who supplied scoring along with grit. He’ll be missed by fans.

It isn’t easy to keep a successful team together in the salary cap era. However, the Bolts still feature prominent stars in Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, Andrei Vasilevskiy and emerging defenseman Mikhail Sergachev. Having such a strong nucleus should make them competitive again in 2023-24.

They made the wise decision to lock up Brandon Hagel to an eight-year extension worth $6.5 million per cap hit, starting in 2024-25. He’s coming off a career season where he proved he was worth what they gave up to acquire him from Chicago. Even if Taylor Raddysh turns into a solid NHL player, the Lightning won that trade.

They also made a smart commitment to two-way pivot Nick Paul. He signed for six years at an AAV of $3.15 million through 2029. Paul has a moderated no-trade clause, while Hagel’s NTC doesn’t kick in until 2026. Both will play key roles for the Lightning.

Sergachev got a much deserved raise for his breakout season. He signed long-term through 2031. His cap hit is $8.5 million. Starting in 2024-25, his NTC will kick in. Eventually, it shifts to a moderated NTC by 2026-27.

In making sure the younger core players are signed, the Lightning assured fans that their team should remain a playoff contender. However, it’ll still hinge on established stars Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, and Vasilevskiy. Only Vasilevskiy and Point are under 30. Sergachev is just 25. That bodes well as Hedman starts to decline.

Tanner Jeannot must prove he was worth the ridiculous price Nashville asked for. He’s got that unique combination of skating, skill, and toughness. But he has to produce.

The Bolts added quality depth player, Conor Sheary. A former Stanley Cup winner who’s been successful with Pittsburgh and Washington, the undersized forward possesses good speed and smarts. He plays with energy and should be a good role player who coach Jon Cooper can use anywhere. Sheary can also kill penalties.

They also signed Josh Archibald. While he won’t blow anyone away, the veteran can fill a void on the fourth line. He likes to mix it up. By signing Austin Watson to a pro tryout (PTO), Tampa probably expects the physical forward to make the roster. He loves to finish checks and can chip in occasionally.

Luke Glendening is a fourth line player. Logan Brown was added for depth. He hasn’t much luck staying healthy.

Calvin de Haan replaces Cole as a depth piece for the blue line. If Erik Cernak can return healthy from a concussion, the Lightning defense should be okay. He’s always been a glue guy for them. Still just 26, he provides most of the grit. Think crunching hits, blocked shots, and strong defense. Every team needs a heart and soul player like that to be successful.

Cooper is counting on Nicklaus Perbix to play important minutes. He impressed with a strong rookie year. His development allowed them to bid adieu to Cal Foote. The Lightning also has veteran Zach Bogosian to step in when needed.

Philippe Myers and Haydn Fleury are third pair guys. So is de Haan.

When it comes down to the Lightning, nobody is more important than Vasilevskiy. He’s coming off a down year. Vasilevskiy still finished sixth for the Vezina. He’s durable and can be counted on to play 60 games. Now, 29, the franchise netminder remains crucial to team success. They need him.

Brian Elliott is out. Jonas Johansson is in. Elliott remains unsigned. Johansson is cheap, which fits in perfectly with what the Bolts like to do with their backup goalie. He hasn’t had much success. As long as he can get into 15 to 20 games and keep it competitive, Cooper won’t mind. As long as he can find enough rest for Vasilevskiy, who is a throwback, it should work out. There are no tandems to speak of here.

Analysis: On paper, the Lightning remains formidable. They boast one of the game’s best players in Kucherov. He somehow flies under the radar despite continuing to put up ridiculous numbers. That’s what happens when you play in the same era as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

The Bolts are one of the few teams to boast two top defensemen who can compete for the Norris. They still have a proven scorer in Stamkos and a lights out two-way center in Point, who’s always been clutch. Then, you have Vasilevskiy.

If both Hagel and Paul continue to emerge, the Lightning should be a lock for the playoffs. They’ll need some help from some of the supporting cast.

Cooper remains one of the best coaches. He is very even keel. When things get tough, he knows what buttons to push. His honesty is refreshing. Communication shouldn’t be an issue.

Prediction: They should be able to win 45-plus games. It’ll be more competitive due to the teams chasing them. But I think 100 points and another postseason remain realistic. Once they get in, anything is possible.