Far be it for me to interrupt the playoff mayhem with both NY teams and around the league (has the Ottawa police investigation into Mark Stone’s wrist injury began yet?), but ironically the non-playoff teams will take center stage tomorrow night when the NHL’s draft lottery results will be broadcast on NBC at 8 PM. No hockey fan needs to be told the stakes of the fourteen-team lottery tomorrow night, which will determine who will get the #1 pick – almost assuredly Canadian phenom Connor McDavid. Pretty much the only team in the lottery that won’t be too nervous is the Buffalo Sabres, who by finishing with the worst record in the league guaranteed themselves no worse than the #2 pick in the league. If Buffalo did get bumped out of the McDavid slot by one of the other thirteen teams winning the lottery – which actually has an 80% chance of happening if you add up the odds of the other thirteen teams – they’d merely have to settle for his near-equal in American phenom Jack Eichel of Boston University. Either way, not a bad deal although Sabres GM Tim Murray admitted to daydreaming over what winning the lottery would mean:
“I watch him too much and I think too much about him…. I wish I could help myself.” – Buffalo Sabres GM Tim Murray on Connor McDavid
While Murray’s honesty may be commendable on some level it still comes off as a bit squirrely given all the Sabres did to ensure finishing with the worst record, including trading both their goaltenders during the season for downgrades at the position, as well as trading Drew Stafford and Tyler Myers in the blockbuster Evander Kane deal. Kane of course was on IR and wouldn’t play a game for the Sabres last season but that trade was at least justifiable in helping the Sabres down the road (especially considering Stafford’s pending UFA status). Murray also showed he was a stand-up comic before he was an NHL GM when he said after firing coach Ted Nolan that improved performance would have influenced the decision to bring him back, and felt the Sabres weren’t the 30th most talented team in the league. Yeeeah, okay.
Anyway, back to the draft lottery – the Sabres under the new setup have a 20% chance to get the top pick. Each of the fourteen non-playoff teams have varying chances to get the top pick, in a process explained during a crisp, short ninety-second video above so I won’t bore you or myself writing about the thousand different numbered four-ball combinations. If any team other than the Sabres get the #1 pick, everyone currently above them will move down a spot. If third-slotted Edmonton wins the lottery for example, Buffalo and Arizona (the two teams sitting in the 1-2 spots) would each get bumped down a spot, Buffalo to two and Arizona to three, which would probably annoy their fans almost as much as the constant move rumors – note to self: yes, it’s Arizona currently slotted at 2, not the Oilers.
Suffice it to say, this draft lottery can be just as unpredictable as the NBA’s (and next year the draft will be even more like the NBA where the top three picks all get determined via lottery), where the team with the worst record hasn’t gotten the top pick in nearly a decade. And with what’s at stake, tomorrow night will be must-see TV. My Devils have a 7.5 percent chance to win the lottery (although I still feel it’s more like zero point one) and division rivals Philly and Columbus are just behind that with 6.5 and 6 percent chances, respectively, while another division team (Carolina) has an 8.5 percent chance. Even perennial powers LA and Boston have a small chance to win the lottery after each shockingly missed the playoffs in the final days of the regular season…just how many fans in the other 29 cities would tear their hair out if that happened?!
Even with all that, the lottery isn’t the only reason non-playoff teams are still in the news given all the coaching changes trickling out left and right with more to come. Obviously the Devils are one team with a vacancy but far from the only one that will be searching for a new head coach this offseason. Currently, by my count five teams have a coaching vacancy – including Toronto, Edmonton, Buffalo and Philly after the firing of Craig Berube today – with other teams such as San Jose and Boston in limbo, not to mention the Mike Babcock question mark in Detroit. Perhaps even Ken Hitchcock becomes a casualty in St. Louis if they go belly-up in the playoffs early again. With the potential for so many big-name coaches to be available, including Cup winners Babcock and Claude Julien (currently still the coach in Boston but without a GM, after the firing of Peter Chiarelli), this offseason might provide the most intriguing coach merry-go-round the NHL’s seen in quite some time.
Things seem to begin (if not end) with Babcock, a highly respected coach who is becoming a free agent after the season’s over. He and the Wings haven’t come to an agreement on a new deal yet, but if he’s available you can bet teams will be beating down his door with big-money offers, likely also offering him a lot of personnel say in the organization. If Babcock makes it to July 1 that could trigger a lot of dominoes with teams that haven’t announced new coaches yet. I already mentioned the uncertainty with Julien in Boston and potential uncertainty with Hitch – another former Cup winner – in St. Louis. Even a coach like Todd McLellan who hasn’t won a Cup yet but is highly respected, will probably get multiple offers should he and the Sharks decide to mutually part ways. Perhaps change would be the best thing for all involved there after the Sharks’ infamous choke to the archrival Kings in the last postseason followed by a dissapointing season out of the money this year…yes they’re in the lottery too. Captain Joe Thornton gave a tad snippy though perhaps understandable answer when asked about McClellan taking time with his family to decide whether to return or not:
“I have no idea,” Thornton said when asked if a coaching change was needed. “Todd has to talk to his family. Maybe he should talk to this family as well in here. We’ll see what happens.”
With not only big-name coaches but big-name jobs most likely available this offseason it’s small wonder that McLellan or many teams each want to weigh their options. Boston would certainly be an attractive job with the talent they have there, although captain and defensive anchor Zdeno Chara’s winding down his career. San Jose’s always had a talented team so that’s an attractive job. Detroit has the best GM in hockey and still a talented core, they’d be attractive if not for Babcock – who may at this point in his career want more authority in an organization – than someone else. Whoever is able to draft McDavid or Eichel in late June instantly becomes a more attractive job as well. Sadly I’m not sure the Devils would be first on anyone’s wish list at this point (although having cap space, a young defensive core and a top goalie in Cory Schneider certainly provides some hope to prospective candidates), and as such it wouldn’t surprise me to see our coaching search last into July again, which wouldn’t be unprecedented for GM Lou Lamoriello.
Given that it wouldn’t shock me if tomorrow’s lottery was the last major news surrounding the Devils for a while, especially with the lack of key FA we need to lose sign this offseason (and the Devils re-upped one of their bigger FA’s right away, inking backup goalie Keith Kinkaid to a well-deserved two year deal just days after the season ended). Odds are they’ll remain in the #6 spot. There’s also a nearly thirty percent chance they get bumped down a slot if anyone 7-14 wins the lottery, which would be the least desirable result tomorrow obviously – particularly if the Flyers or the Jackets are the team that wins the lottery and bumps us down a slot. Then there’s also the ultimate fantasy which best remain a fantasy till tommorow night.